Understanding the emergent macro-scale impacts caused by the rapid expansion of Offshore Wind within The North Sea System

Project Description:

This research project investigates what are macro-scale impacts, both current and emergent, of the expansion of offshore wind on the North Sea’s socio-ecological system, and what is their potential to generate conflicts between different marine users?

The project aims to be truly interdisciplinary, meaning appropriate credence will be given to all aspects of the system, unlike in the majority of similar projects that tend to over-value either the social or the ecological subsystems^[1]. Because of these equitable considerations, the resultant Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) recommendations would not only benefit offshore wind, but all other marine users too. Specifically, the knowledge generated from this project will be used to anticipate stakeholder conflicts in the increasingly overcrowded North Sea region, and suggest MSP interventions that help to control or mitigate them.

Key outcomes will be to identify and/or predict newly emergent features of the system, such as unseen effects on other marine users or the environment. Make MSP recommendations based on results, ultimately fostering resilience and boosting sustainability of the North Sea system.

Methodology

• Collect socio-ecological data – which pertain here to social, economic and ecological subsystems – at the local scale, along a stretch of the North East coast of England. Use existing monitoring for physical and some social variables, and conduct stakeholder interviews to understand local scale system linkages, interactions and tensions.
• Apply these features into a conceptual model of the socio-ecological system, with changes arising from wind power development, then increase the system complexity and predictive capacity by integrating in a suite of known complex systems models.
• Use the local model to inform targeted collation of macro-scale data on the physical, ecological and social environment of the North Sea.
• Apply macro-data to the local model, then run the model to test it’s predictive accuracy for the North Sea socio-ecological system, by using historical data.
• To improve model accuracy, alter, add, or subtract certain linkages and agents to reflect any complexities that are not shared between the local and regional scales.
• Apply the projected expansion of offshore wind energy to the model and discover emergent impacts, such as changes to ocean food webs,  biogeochemical cycles, coastal population dynamics and how offshore wind may benefit or detriment other marine sectors such as fisheries and tourism.

References & Further Reading

[1] Haraldsson et al. (2020) How to model social ecological systems? – A case study on the effects of a future offshore wind farm on the local society and ecosystem, and whether social compensation matters, Mar Pol, 119 104031.

[2] Levin et al. (2013) Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems: modeling and policy implications. Env & Dev Econ, 18:111–132,

[2] Haraldsson et al. (2020) How to model social ecological systems? – A case study on the effects of a future offshore wind farm on the local society and ecosystem, and whether social compensation matters, Mar Pol, 119 104031.

[3] Gotts et al. (2018) Agent-based modelling of socio-ecological systems: Models, projects and ontologies, Eco Complexity, 40B, 100728.

[4] Kelly (Letcher) et al. (2013) Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management, J. Envsoft, 476, 159-181.